Finished: 05 PM Sat 23 Jul 11 UTC
Private VDip Cup Game 7 - canaduh-Guaroz 2
1 day, 12 hours /phase
Pot: 2 D - Autumn, 1906, Finished
1 excused NMR / no regaining / extend the first 1 turn(s)
Game won by Guaroz (2030 D (B))

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17 Jul 11 UTC Spring, 1901: Have fun & Good luck!
17 Jul 11 UTC Autumn, 1901: Same to you!
19 Jul 11 UTC Autumn, 1903: Prussia? I didn't order Prussia :(
20 Jul 11 UTC Spring, 1905: You are very good.
20 Jul 11 UTC Spring, 1905: No No NO Warsaw should go to Ukr! I checked orders 3 times before finalixe! What's happening this game ?!?!?
20 Jul 11 UTC Spring, 1905: er...sorry...I got angry...I'm calm now :-)
and thank you, btw
22 Jul 11 UTC I made a mistake
22 Jul 11 UTC Well I think that 1v1s are games of mistakes. I mean that who makes less mistakes than the opponent does, wins.

Yes you made a mistake last spring. I don't know if it's the one you're talking about. Your mistake was you didn't count my SCs up to 18.
I got 14 and surely lose Mar, then 13.
13 + 2 english + 2 french + Con = 18. Also Sev was in danger so 19.
Now you need to bring it down to 17, and there are only 2 ways to try it:
1) Take Por and keep Sev
2) Take Por and take Smy/ keep Con

1) PORTUGAL. I wandered several hours what to do (notice I logged in at 1:30 AM, I had to give one more check before sleep, lol). I was really scared you could move Spa>Por and let me in MAO, OR if I held, you could take MAO and in fall MAO>Por supp by Spa. It was a guess 50/50.

2) SEVASTOPOL and SMY/CON. This way Sev is lost, so if you moved to Arm, now I have to guess whether you move to Smy or hold because I must do the same with Con (50/50). Also, since it's unlikely (you knew - you didn't defend it) I go for Rum in spring you could move it to BS, I can't cut support to Sev there. So in fall I have to guess whether attack Sev or Rum: are you supporting Sev from BS or defending Rum (Bud>Gal, Sev>Ukr, BS>Rum - again 50/50)?

This was what I thought in spring. Now I realize one more thing: if you counted to 18 (19), you'd have known that I don't need Vienna because both it's hard to keep in fall and I can't risk to lose Gal. So moving Ven>Tri>Bud>Rum>BS would have let you keep both Rum & Sev (& Vie) in fall. 100%. But it was very hard to guess.

Luckily, by your moves I notice you didn't count up to 18. Even if you did, since you needed both #1 & #2, your odds to avoid loss were at 25%. 50% in the best case.

So your biggest mistake was before this year, I believe.

Well. thank you for the game. You are very good, the best Italy I've met until now, the only one who really scared me.

GG
22 Jul 11 UTC Yeah, but I think it means I am put of the tournament. :(
23 Jul 11 UTC No you'll play some kind of tiebreaking games with Gobble & Hellenic, I believe.